How Child Care Demand calculates a market

Resident demand starts with children aged 0 to 4 inside the catchment. The model applies the catchment-weighted female labour-force participation rate, then a 61.3% childcare take-up rate. These are two sequential filters. Neither is counted twice.

Worker demand estimates childcare use linked to people working in the catchment. External workers are approximated as 66.3% of catchment workers. The child-to-worker ratio is 16.32% in New South Wales and 16.6% elsewhere until a state-specific calibration is available. A 2.73% worker demand factor is then applied.

Resident and worker demand are added. They are not multiplied together. Report inputs and intermediate values remain visible so the result can be checked.

Captured demand uses Department of Education Child Care Subsidy enrolments, currently loaded to 2025 Q4, apportioned from SA3 areas by their overlap with the report catchment. It is an observed enrolment signal, separate from the demand estimate.

Capture can exceed 100%. Families cross catchment boundaries, children can attend part time, and the CCS series covers ages 0 to 5 while the core population model uses ages 0 to 4. A value above 100% is shown as a market signal, not clipped into a false ceiling.

The commercial ratio uses approved places from services identified as long day care. Outside school hours care and standalone preschool or kindergarten services are excluded because they do not provide equivalent supply for the same family decision.

Reports also show an inclusive secondary ratio using every nearby service with published approved capacity. This broader figure is context only. It is not the primary long day care feasibility measure. Missing place counts remain unknown rather than being guessed.

Reports use Mapbox drive-time polygons at 5, 10, and 15 minutes. The selected catchment is saved with the report. Where SA1 population and address evidence are available, population is allocated dasymetrically so uninhabited land does not receive the same weight as residential areas. The model falls back to SA2 overlap where SA1 coverage is incomplete, with a guard against remote-area over-allocation.

The commercial trade area is narrower than the largest reporting ring. It uses the full 5-minute core plus 25% of the incremental 5-to-10-minute band. The same rule is applied to young children and long day care places.

Childcare development applications are included only when they are relevant to future supply in the report catchment. Proposed places are weighted by planning status: pending 0.40, approved 0.75, under construction 0.90, stale 0.20, and needs review 0.25. Evidence confidence, freshness, and likely timing can reduce those weights further.

The report distinguishes current places, published possible places, and weighted likely future places. A blocked or incomplete planning source is shown as a coverage limitation, not interpreted as a zero pipeline.

The standard pipeline view uses a three-year horizon. Where an official state projection for children aged 0 to 4 is loaded, it drives resident-demand growth. Otherwise the report uses the observed child-population trend. Annual child growth is capped between minus 10% and plus 10% to stop sparse or unstable inputs overwhelming the market view. Worker demand is held flat unless a defensible forward workplace series is available.

The report names the projection source, source years, annual rate, and applied rate. A forecast is an assumption-led scenario, not a guarantee of enrolments or centre openings.

Local staffing uses the ABS 2021 Census SA2 occupation-by-qualification extract. Usual residence is the primary local availability view, while place-of-work counts describe competition for workers where that evidence is loaded. Estimated educator requirements use a transparent proxy of one educator for every 5.5 long day care places.

National Workforce Census 2024 and Jobs and Skills Australia NERO SA4 figures are shown as regional or state context only. They do not become a site-level staffing score when local qualification evidence is missing.

Planning coverage is recorded by jurisdiction, source, geography, and date window. A report can therefore distinguish a live match, an audited search with no childcare applications, a blocked source, and an area still awaiting enrichment. See the live coverage ledger for current jurisdiction status.